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Delhi Election Exit Polls: A look at what exit polls predicted in 2015 and 2020 elections

Delhi Exit Poll Predictions Trends from the Last Elections:

As polling in Delhi Assembly Election nears its conclusion, all eyes are on the exit poll results, set to be released later today (February 5) from 6.30 pm onwards. However, if history is any indication, exit polls have struggled to fully capture the dominance of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) since its political debut in 2013. While pollsters have often predicted an AAP victory, they have consistently underestimated the scale of its triumphs, particularly in 2015 and 2020.


Let’s take a look at what exit polls predicted in 2015 and 2020.

2015: AAP’s landslide that no one saw coming

In 2015, most exit polls projected a clear AAP majority but failed to grasp the extent of Arvind Kejriwal’s sweeping win. The average of six major exit polls estimated that the AAP would secure around 45 seats, while the BJP was expected to win 24 seats and the Congress one seat. However, the actual results shattered expectations – AAP bagged 67 seats, leaving the BJP with a meager three, while the Congress was completely wiped out.

No exit poll foresaw AAP crossing the 60-seat mark and only one (Axis My India) predicted the party would exceed 50 seats, estimating 53. The lowest AAP prediction came from India TV-CVoter, which projected only 39 seats.

Meanwhile, the BJP was significantly overestimated, with all but one poll placing it above 20 seats. Axis My India’s 17-seat prediction was the closest to reality.

For Congress, the forecasts were largely accurate — Today’s Chanakya and Axis My India correctly predicted a zero-seat finish, while India Today-Cicero’s four-seat estimate was the most generous.

On average, pollsters underestimated AAP’s performance by a staggering 22 seats and overestimated the BJP’s by 21 seats — a major discrepancy in what was ultimately a historic landslide.


2020: Improved accuracy but still off the mark

Five years later, the 2020 Delhi Assembly elections saw exit polls get closer to reality, but AAP’s final tally once again surpassed predictions. The average of eight exit polls projected a 54-seat win for AAP, while the BJP was expected to secure 15 seats and Congress was seen as nearly irrelevant. The actual results, however, were –  AAP won 62 seats, outperforming poll predictions by eight seats. The BJP secured only eight seats, despite being projected to win 15.

Congress failed to win a single seat, an outcome predicted by five of the eight exit polls.

The India Today-Axis My India poll came closest to the actual outcome, forecasting an AAP victory in the range of 59-68 seats and the BJP in the 2-11 seat range. However, other polls were overly optimistic about the BJP’s prospects, with some predicting over 20 seats for the party.

For the Congress, ABP News-CVoter gave the highest projection (0-4 seats), but the majority of polls correctly anticipated zero wins.

With today’s exit polls set to be released, the question remains: Will they finally get it right? Or will history repeat itself, with AAP once again proving stronger than pollsters predict? One thing is certain — Delhi’s voters have a way of surprising the experts.


Source: financialexpress


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