Expert Explains: What the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal means for the region, the US
It has been less than a week since a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, and violations are already being reported. Lebanon’s health ministry on Monday (December 2) said one person was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Marjayoun, near the Israel border.
What long-term effects can the deal have for the region?
The important thing to note here is the scale of destruction Israeli aggression has caused in Lebanon so far. Not just southern Lebanon, which has been the centre of the most fierce attacks by Israel, but also other parts like the eastern Beqa Valley and capital Beirut have seen brutal killings and devastating damage to infrastructure.
Nearly 4,000 people in Lebanon have been killed, almost 16,000 injured, the total internally displaced persons is almost 1.5 million, including Syrian refugees hosted by Lebanon, nearly 40 towns and villages decimated, and approximately 100,000 housing units either fully or partially destroyed.
Given such devastation, any sort of peace deal will have an immediate and significant impact. Already, there are reports of the displaced returning home, even when they might not have a home to return to.
The deal’s basic contours are — in 60 days, both Israel and Hezbollah are to remove armed presence from southern Lebanon, retreating on either side of the UN-monitored blue line that is the unofficial border between Israel and Lebanon; and the US and France are to join the Tripartite Mechanism, which includes the Israeli and Lebanese armies and UNIFIL, to monitor the region and ensure the ceasefire terms are adhered to.
While we’ll have to see how the ceasefire agreement plays out on the ground, even if the ceasefire seems to be tenuous and fragile, it is a positive development. It has been received with widespread relief by the Lebanese people and I would envisage that the same would be the case with the people of Israel, especially in northern areas of Israel.
If this peace holds, it would enable Lebanon to focus on its internal challenges, especially economic, and bring the country back on the path of stability and growth.
Peace and stability in Lebanon are very much in Israel’s interests too.
Lebanon and Israel have a shared maritime boundary that has substantial reservoirs of oil and gas. The United States for many years has been trying to mediate a maritime boundary agreement to open the way to exploit these resources, which was finally reached in October 2022, but never took off.
If the ceasefire holds, this extremely valuable resource can be harnessed for the prosperity of both countries and of the region.
Violations of the ceasefire will plunge the region into more turmoil and destruction.
Developments in the region, for example, in Syria, post this ceasefire need to be analysed carefully.
After the ceasefire, Hezbollah has claimed ‘victory’. Is this a victory for either side?
Well, given the widespread destruction, neither side is a victor.
The ceasefire deal seems to be a well thought-out, calibrated, tactical move. On part of Israel, this is a bid to get some breathing space and further intensify its ongoing onslaught on Gaza.
The battered Hezbollah, too, gets time for reconsolidation, although that would be against the provisions of the deal, which calls for the Lebanese army, and not Hezbollah, to be in full control of southern Lebanon.
After the 2006 war with Israel too, Hezbollah had claimed victory, and its profile did rise post that war.
This time, Hezbollah has suffered significant setbacks, especially the killing of several members of its top leadership, although it has demonstrated it is capable of continuing the fight, and remains a force to reckon with.
The inclusion of France and the US in the Tripartite Mechanism is a novel feature of the deal, with a greater role assigned to the US than France.
The US has made it clear that it will not contribute troops on the ground, but it has been given a very prominent role in monitoring.
The Middle East has always been an extremely important region for the US, in terms of geopolitics, security, commercial interests of oil and gas, the sea lanes of communication, etc. With this deal, its role in ensuring peace in Lebanon becomes more direct.
There will be some scrutiny on the actions of the US, and it is to be hoped that the function of monitoring and intervening is performed transparently, impartially, and effectively.
When we talk about the US presence or the US role, we have to really look at it from the standpoint of the incoming Trump presidency. The Biden administration’s Middle East policy has been disastrous in its inability to halt or even stem Israel’s horrific attacks on Gaza. Under Trump, there is likely to be greater efforts towards a peace deal.
What is the role of France in the ceasefire deal?
It is pertinent to remember the strong historic connection between France and Lebanon. After the defeat of the Ottoman empire in World War I, its erstwhile domains were divided among the Allies, with Syria and Lebanon coming under France. After Lebanon gained independence from France, the two countries have maintained a multifaceted cooperation. Thus, in the run-up to the current deal, France played an active role.
It was France who took the initiative of hosting an international conference in support of Lebanon’s people and sovereignty in Paris on October 24. The French government has been in active discussion with the governments of the United States, Lebanon, and Israel.
Now, along with the US, France has the responsibility of ensuring the implementation of this very important ceasefire deal. Both countries have to act in good faith, in total transparency, with the utmost objectivity and even-handedness.
In general, the Lebanese people seem to repose greater confidence in France than in the US.
What will the deal mean for Gaza?
As stated earlier, the ceasefire with Lebanon seems to be a tactical move on part of Israel to reconsolidate. So, to hope that the deal is a step towards peace in Gaza would be naive.
In the short term, if peace has to return to Gaza, Israel’s powerful allies need to take concerted action to prevail upon it to end its horrific onslaught. A long-lasting, durable peace can only be achieved with the two-State solution, with both Palestine and Israel living as independent sovereign nation-states with clear and mutually acceptable boundaries.
Source : indianexpress
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