President Joe Biden has approved Ukraine’s first use of US-supplied long-range missiles marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. These Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) could target Russian and North Korean forces in the Kursk region of western Russia, signalling a dramatic shift in the war’s dynamics. This decision has resulted in a crucial change in the military balance as the ATACMS’ precision strikes could challenge Russian defences, compelling Moscow to rethink its strategies and prepare for a more complex conflict that demands a combination of defensive and offensive measures.

Strengthening air defence systems

Russia’s air defence, built around advanced platforms like the S-400 and S-500, plays a key role in its military strategy. These systems, designed to intercept both ballistic and cruise missiles, are essential for countering long-range threats.

To mitigate vulnerabilities, Russia is likely to deploy these systems strategically near borders and critical infrastructure. Additionally, a multi-layered defence network combining radar, surface-to-air missiles and electronic warfare could enhance interception rates. Satellite-based early warning systems would further boost defence capabilities, enabling rapid responses to incoming missile threats.

However, maintaining these systems requires significant resources and operational endurance posing challenges for Russia in the long run.

Offensive countermeasures

Russia is also expected to employ offensive actions as a deterrence and preemptive strategy. Targeting Ukraine’s missile launch sites could cripple its missile capabilities, while preemptive strikes on command-and-control centres might disrupt Ukraine’s coordination. Yet, such aggressive measures carry the risk of escalating the conflict forcing Russia to weigh the potential consequences carefully.

Military strategies now also rely heavily on electronic and cyber warfare. By jamming or spoofing missile guidance systems, Russia could neutralise Ukrainian missiles without directly engaging with incoming projectiles. Cyber operations aimed at degrading Ukraine’s military infrastructure could prevent launches, offering a strategic advantage while avoiding physical confrontation. These measures require sophisticated technology and constant updates to stay effective.

The nuclear angle

In response to discussions about Ukraine’s potential use of Western-supplied missiles, Russia has adjusted its nuclear doctrine. At an October meeting, President Vladimir Putin proposed changes to the 2020 nuclear deterrence framework. The revisions removed Russia’s absolute negative security assurance, expanding the definition of a threat to include “aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state with the support of a nuclear power”. While not specifically aimed at Ukraine, the change is widely interpreted as a response to Nato’s involvement.

According to a piece published in The Lowly Institute, the updated doctrine also lowers the threshold for nuclear retaliation, including scenarios such as ballistic missile attacks or strikes on critical infrastructure. Additionally, Belarus is now formally included under Russia’s nuclear deterrence umbrella, signaling a shift in Russia’s defence posture.

As Ukraine contemplates using ATACMS missiles against Russian territory, it must consider the risk of escalating the conflict toward a nuclear confrontation.

Long-term measures for sustained security

To secure its future, Russia is likely to pursue long-term strategies such as developing hypersonic missile defence systems to counter next-generation threats. Intelligence gathering within Ukraine will also play a crucial role in preempting missile launches. By neutralising threats before they materialise, Russia could enhance its defensive and offensive capabilities improving its position in future conflicts.

Role of ATACMS in shifting the battlefield

Biden’s approval of ATACMS for Ukraine marks a significant shift in the conflict. These long-range missiles enable Ukraine to target high-value Russian assets including airfields in Crimea and military command centres. Although their limited stock could restrict their impact, the precision of ATACMS significantly enhances Ukraine’s ability to challenge Russian military dominance.

Manufactured by Lockheed Martin, ATACMS can strike targets up to 190 miles away. Equipped with a warhead carrying 375 pounds of explosives, these missiles are launched using HIMARS or M270 systems already deployed by Ukraine. Originally designed in the 1980s, ATACMS are rare guided weapons that could make a significant difference in the conflict.

This decision by the US follows Russia’s increased assaults on Ukrainian infrastructure and the introduction of North Korean-supplied missiles into the battlefield. It highlights Washington’s commitment to bolstering Ukraine’s military capabilities making it more difficult for Moscow to maintain its strategic position.

Global implications for Russian defence systems

Nations that have invested in Russian defence systems, such as India, Turkey and China, are watching closely. The conflict serves as a real-world test for the effectiveness of Russian technologies like the S-400. If these systems perform well, confidence in their reliability will grow. However, any failures could prompt a shift toward Western alternatives, weakening Russia’s arms export market.

The ongoing conflict also provides insight into Russia’s ability to support its allies during crises. The capacity to replenish interceptor missiles, update software and handle logistical challenges under pressure will shape global perceptions of Russian defence systems.

Challenges and risks

Despite its robust response options, Russia faces significant challenges. Maintaining operational readiness strains financial and military resources. Moreover, preemptive strikes could escalate the conflict and invite further sanctions, isolating Russia globally.

Balancing immediate defence needs with long-term sustainability remains a critical task. A misstep could weaken Russia’s strategic position both at home and abroad. Moscow’s response to Ukraine’s long-range missile capabilities will need to be multi-faceted—balancing defence, offence and diplomacy—while avoiding broader escalation.

The Ukraine war is a litmus test for Russian military technology and will have lasting implications for its global arms market. To succeed, Russia must not only neutralise immediate threats but also reinforce its long-term strategic capabilities in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.