Now the Conservatives’ chances of an electoral victory are slim – and would require a significant polling miss and a groundswell of support in key battlegrounds.

“Almost everything about this campaign is without precedent. For the first time in Canada’s history, our closest geographic, economic and security partner has placed us in the crosshairs, disrupting our sense of economic and physical security,” said Scott Reid, a political adviser and former director of communications to the Liberal former prime minister Paul Martin.

“And then you have this unprecedented situation where Mark Carney, with no electoral experience emerges on to the scene, reverses a 26-point deficit in his party’s fortunes and takes them to the brink of a majority victory. Nothing about this that’s happened before. It’s not just that it’s unprecedented, it’s that it’s enormously consequential in all of its implications. It’s all jaw-dropping.”

Still, the prospect of a fourth consecutive Liberal term has frustrated many in the country, who see a government that was unable to rein in a cost of living crisis on the verge of retaining power.

“Ten years of a Liberal government is a long time. They had their shot. And the changes they made are for the worst. We need a new government, we need new ideas, new people and new ministers,” said Sam, who lives in a new housing development in Carney’s electoral district in Ottawa.

He said that although Carney cast himself as a novice, the Liberal leader is a “political insider,” adding: “I’m not saying he’s not a qualified person. But he’s also a businessman. So is Trump. Look how that’s turned out for everyone.”

Running on a message of change, Poilievre, a seven-term parliamentarian, has attracted thousands to his energetic rallies across Canada, and won over young voters attracted by his response to the country’s cost of living crisis.

“Canadians are asking the simple question: can we really afford to allow Mark Carney to have the fourth term of Justin Trudeau, raising exactly the same taxes, running exactly the same deficits, doubling exactly the same housing costs, with exactly the same Liberal team?” Poilievre said during a campaign stop in the city of Saskatoon, a Tory stronghold.

“There’s a generational divide in the country and real questions of whether Canadian dream is achievable any more. Poilievre was beating the drums about this and Trudeau’s popularity was plummeting. And exactly the wrong moment, we have this threat to the south of us and it completely overturned the tables in Canadian politics,” said Melanie Paradis, the president of Texture Communications and director of communications for the former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole.

“And the question is, what’s at stake? For the older generation, it’s the sovereignty and integrity of Canada. The existential threat to their future is Trump [but] the existential threat to the future of the younger generation is being able to own a home and start a family.”

That shift in political calculus puts the Conservatives in a difficult place.

Already, more than 7 million people have cast ballots in early voting – a 25% increase over the previous record, helped in large part by the Easter long weekend. The first polls close at 8.30pm Atlantic time, with seat-rich Québec and Ontario closing at 9.30pm eastern time, with results expected soon after.

Source : The guardian